
US soybean crush capacity rose about 14% from 2023 to 2025, with further expansions announced through 2030. Domestic renewable fuel capacity grew from 791 million gallons in 2021 to 4.58 billion gallons, driven largely by soybean oil demand for biofuels.
Growing crush capacity supports soybean and soybean oil demand, while higher meal output adds supply pressure on soybean meal prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.