
Terrain expects the 2025/26 season-average soybean price to be slightly above 2024/25 on proposed RVO demand support. US soybean acreage fell to 83.38 million acres from 87.1 million last year.
Weather, China purchases and Brazilian conditions are flagged as key price drivers.
Lower US acreage and stronger biofuel-driven crush demand support soybean prices. Export demand from China and Brazilian weather could shift the outlook.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.