
Chicago soybean futures opened higher on Monday, supported by reported Chinese purchases and investor positioning ahead of the USDA supply-and-demand report. In Brazil, weaker demand for soybean meal and oil reduced crush margins and weighed on domestic soybean prices, while uneven weather conditions limited declines in some regions.
Chinese buying supports U.S. soybean demand and prices, but weak meal and oil demand can reduce crushing and limit support for Brazilian beans. The market’s reaction also depends on the upcoming USDA outlook and crop conditions.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.