Soybean futures hovered near $10.9 per bushel after retreating from a 16-month high of $11.2 as weak Chinese demand for US beans capped gains. China confirmed it will suspend retaliatory tariffs on US farm products from November 10, but US soybeans still face a 13% import tariff versus 3% on Brazilian and Argentine supplies.
The remaining tariff gap keeps US beans uncompetitive against South American supply, limiting upside in US soybean prices unless Chinese purchases materialize.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.