
Chinese soybean crushers have slowed bean purchases for deliveries through August because of poor crush margins. Less than 20% of expected June-August demand had been covered, and soymeal demand has fallen as hog and poultry feed use declined.
Weaker Chinese crush demand and lower soymeal use reduce import demand for soybeans and meal, which pressures soybean and soymeal prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 123 past bearish trade events, HOGS moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.