Record Brazilian soybean arrivals into China are weighing on soymeal purchases, with over 11 million tonnes due at ports in June and further large volumes expected in July and August. Traders say Chinese demand has not risen as expected, and hog-farmer losses are pressuring soymeal use.
Heavy Chinese soybean supply and weak meal demand point to softer soybean and soymeal prices and possible cancellations of forward meal contracts, which would weigh on export demand for Brazilian and US beans.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.