A sharp November 4 decline in crude oil futures pulled CBOT soybean oil lower and reduced South American soybean oil export values. December-loading Argentine FOB Up River prices fell $14.33 per tonne and Brazilian FOB Paranaguá prices fell $20.95 per tonne, while stronger export basis levels partly offset the futures decline.
Lower crude oil prices reduce support for vegetable oils linked to biodiesel demand, pressuring soybean oil futures and export values. Stronger export basis in Argentina and Brazil softened, but did not erase, the bearish impact.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.