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Brent crude fell almost 25% on Monday, March 9, 2020, hammering Asia's biofuel industry. Palm oil is still about US$200 a ton more expensive than gasoil, the widest premium in over three years, after palm briefly fell over 10% the day before.
A wide palm-to-gasoil premium makes discretionary palm biodiesel blending uneconomic, cutting domestic biofuel demand for palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia and weighing on palm and soyoil prices.
freemalaysiatoday.comBloombergMar 10, 2020After 51 past bearish macro events, Palm Oil moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.1%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 40 past bearish macro events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -4.5% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent fell almost 25% on March 9 and palm briefly dropped over 10%, which hit the biofuel demand outlook and the palm price directly.
The Brent crash hit biofuel economics and palm fell sharply, weakening vegetable oil demand and prices including soyoil.
