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Brent crude fell from about $10 per MMBtu in mid-February to below $6 in mid-March after OPEC members including Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to agree output cuts. The gap between oil and spot LNG prices narrowed from $7 to $3 per MMBtu.
A narrowing oil-to-gas spread reduces incentives to buy spot LNG and could lower oil-indexed contract prices over time if low oil prices persist for months.
icis.comAlex FroleyMar 16, 2020After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The oil crash and narrower oil-to-LNG price gap weakened the global energy price complex and pressured US gas via sentiment and lower LNG export netbacks.
