Preliminary estimates put US hog slaughter near 2.9 million head per week, just below last year, with weights about 1% above year-ago levels. USDA official slaughter and weight data are unavailable, and pork bellies have fallen about 25% since August.
Heavier weights and seasonal supply growth increase pork output while softening demand from fast-service restaurants later in the year, which pressures pork cutout values and hog prices. Missing USDA export data also leaves feed demand harder to assess.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.