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The USDA Hogs and Pigs report indicated that US hog supplies later in summer and into fall may run above year-ago levels. Near-term pork supply remains limited, and belly prices are expected to stay elevated through early August.
Expected larger late-summer supplies should temper prices after Labor Day, reducing hog margins and potentially moderating demand for feed in the fall.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.