Pork Checkoff's quarterly review raised 2026 pork production forecasts to up 1.2% from a year earlier, with hog and cutout prices below earlier projections. Weakness in bellies and hams, tied to sluggish foodservice demand and softer export buying, was the largest drag.
Weaker demand for bellies and hams is pulling down the hog cutout even as seasonal production declines offer some support, which keeps hog price upside limited.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.