
USDA's Crop Production report raised the soybean yield estimate to 52.8 bushels per acre and lifted harvested acres by 100,000 to 85.881 million. Expected production rose 16 million bushels to 4.535 billion, while WASDE cut 2026/27 carryout.
Higher production expectations add supply and weigh on futures, though the lower carryout offsets part of the bearish effect.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.