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S&P raised its Brent price assumption for the rest of 2026 by $10 to $105 per barrel and its 2027 assumption by $5 to $85. Its revised outlook assumes disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues through 2027, with Middle East conflict disrupting oil and product exports and prompting higher European natural-gas price assumptions.
Prolonged disruption to Persian Gulf exports and the need to rebuild inventories tighten expected supply, supporting crude prices over the forecast horizon; elevated natural-gas assumptions also reflect continued energy-market tightness.
dailybyte.pkThe Daily ByteNov 7, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
