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Live cattle futures posted a record run, rising about eight cents per pound in under eight days, as second-quarter beef output was expected to fall more than 6%. USDA's prospective plantings report showed US farmers intend to plant 87.5 million acres of soybeans, below expectations, and soy complex prices rallied.
Crude oil also rose after OPEC cut output by 70,000 barrels per day.
Lower soybean acreage tightens the outlook for soymeal and oil supplies, supporting feed costs. The OPEC cut lifts energy costs that feed into fuel and fertilizer.
cnhi.comApr 2, 2023After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Record futures run on expected 6%+ drop in second-quarter beef output reflects tight supply and momentum that carried into the window.
Published April 2 just before the move, it describes a record futures run driven by an expected drop of more than 6% in Q2 beef output, a supply-driven bullish impulse that fits the April 3 jump.
