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November soybean futures jumped after USDA's June stocks and acreage reports showed soybean plantings about 4 million acres below March intentions. Corn June 1 stocks came in at 4.106 billion bushels, the lowest since 2013-14, and corn plantings were 94.1 million acres, well above trade estimates.
The soybean acreage shortfall and tighter corn stocks support prices for both crops, with lower soybean supplies adding support to meal and oil.
dtnpf.comDana MantiniJun 30, 2023After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The June 30 Acreage report showed corn plantings of 94.1 million acres, well above trade estimates, which is bearish for supply and likely drove the sharp drop, partly offset by low June 1 stocks.
The USDA June Acreage report (soybean plantings ~4M acres below March intentions) is the likely cause of the soybean surge, but it was released 2023-06-30, after the move window ending 06/29, so this is only a possible link via pre-report positioning.
