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The USDA's first official 2021/22 Prospective Plantings report put US corn plantings at 91.1 million acres and soybeans at 87.6 million, both well below trade expectations. The same report cut soybean ending stocks by 31%, and the quarterly stocks update also came out.
Lower-than-expected acreage and a sharply smaller soybean stocks outlook tighten the new-crop balance sheet, which pushed corn and soybean futures sharply higher and raises feed grain and soymeal costs for buyers.
fastmarkets.comTimothy WorledgeMar 31, 2021After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA Prospective Plantings report showed soybean acres well below expectations and cut ending stocks sharply, which is a bullish supply shock that sent soybean complex futures limit-up. The report was released March 31 but the 4.94% move ends March 30, so the timing is slightly ambiguous.
USDA Prospective Plantings showed soybean acreage (87.6M) well below expectations and cut soybean stocks 31%, triggering limit-up futures and the large 5.12% move.
