
USDA's September WASDE cut the corn yield but raised harvested acreage to the highest since 1933, producing a bigger-than-expected crop. Corn futures initially fell before rallying more than 2%, and USDA also raised its corn export forecast as importers such as Mexico buy cheap US grain.
Larger export demand from Mexico and other buyers partly offsets the bearish acreage surprise, supporting corn prices.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The yield cut and higher export forecast caused corn to reverse from early losses and rally more than 2%.