Soybean commentary: Futures rebound despite higher USDA stocks forecast

After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Jun 18, 2026Futures Fall After June WASDE Reveals Higher Corn Stocks-0.4%
• Jul 13, 2017USDA: Corn stocks increase, soybeans decrease - Mid-West Farm Report-1.7%
• May 10, 2024USDA Forecasts 14.86 BB Corn Crop, 4.45 BB Soybean Crop+2.0%
• Oct 1, 2026Corn plunges 20 cents as high USDA stocks stun market+0.3%
• Dec 13, 2018USDA confirms U.S. soybean sales to China; soy futures fall-2.2%

After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 31, 2021Futures hit limits as USDA fails to deliver corn, soybean planting hike - Fastmarkets+2.3%
• May 11, 2016With a USDA Shrinking Forecast, Soybean Futures Soared – Schad Commodity+2.4%
• Feb 27, 2025USDA Forecasts Tighter-Than-Expected Soybean Ending Stocks-0.1%
• Oct 12, 2023USDA Further Trims Its Forecasts for US Corn and Soybeans+9.0%
• May 12, 2025USDA May report: Record corn crop, tight soybean stocks for 2025-26+1.3%

After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 15, 2025USDA forecasts lower US soybean stocks, record crush for 2025/26 | Feed & Grain-0.8%
• Oct 19, 2026USDA soybean-oil forecast implies roughly 600 million additional D4 RINs - Fastmarkets+2.7%
• May 21, 2026USDA forecasts tighter soybean supplies-1.4%
• Aug 3, 2026US soybean oil use for biofuels production hits record high in May - Fastmarkets+2.6%
• Jan 15, 2021Near record US soybean crush falls short of estimate: NOPA - Fastmarkets-0.2%