◂ Event Timeline

Oct 19, 2026REPORTUS

USDA soybean-oil forecast implies roughly 600 million additional D4 RINs

USDA's October WASDE kept its forecast of 17.8 billion lb of soybean oil for biofuel use in 2026-27, up about 3 billion lb from 2025-26. Analysts convert that increase into roughly 600-630 million additional D4 RINs.

WHY IT MATTERS

A projected 20% jump in biofuel soybean oil use supports soybean oil prices and feedstock demand. The RIN estimate links that demand to the RFS volume targets.

AFFECTSSBO▲

SOURCE
fastmarkets.comRobert LaneOct 19, 2026

Price reaction & history

SBO▲bullishSO FAR1d +2.6%5d +2.7%20d —

After 296 past bullish report events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

Aug 3, 2026US soybean oil use for biofuels production hits record high in May - Fastmarkets+2.6%
May 13, 2024Soybean commentary: Futures rebound despite higher USDA stocks forecast - Fastmarkets+3.4%
May 21, 2026USDA forecasts tighter soybean supplies-1.4%
Jan 12, 2024USDA boosts forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production | Biodiesel Magazine-0.1%
Sep 13, 2023USDA Maintains 2023-'24 Forecast for Soybean Oil Use in Biofuel - World-Energy+0.3%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

SBO · GP ▸

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