USDA kept its 2023-24 soybean oil biofuel use forecast at 12.5 billion pounds in its September WASDE report. It raised its 2022-23 estimate to 11.8 billion pounds and cut soybean production, crush, exports and ending stocks.
Lower soybean supplies and stable biofuel demand support soybean and soybean oil prices, while the reduced crush forecast trims meal output.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.