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USDA's October report raised US soybean harvested area by 740,000 acres but cut yield to 49.5 bushels per acre, below trade expectations, leaving production unchanged at a record 4.431 billion bushels. November CBOT soybean futures jumped nearly 3% on the report day and broke $10 the following day.
A surprise yield cut in a report with unchanged production signals tighter perceived supply, supporting soybean and meal prices.
manitobacooperator.caKaren BraunNov 6, 2017After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
