
Brent was on track for a roughly 16% weekly decline as hopes of de-escalation in the Iran war weighed on crude, while US diesel fell only 0.9% in the week. Bunker prices and tanker freight eased, but carriers announced or extended piracy, Suez, war-risk and bunker surcharges for some routes.
Lower crude prices can reduce energy costs for feed production and transport, but the slower decline in diesel and continuing freight surcharges mean delivered feed costs may not fall as quickly. The prospect of de-escalation is bearish for crude, while persistent route charges keep shipping costs elevated.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.