
Ahead of Tuesday’s November WASDE, the analysis says grain markets face downside risk, particularly if USDA raises soybean yield estimates beyond current expectations. It notes that corn yield estimates are below October’s figures, while wheat futures fell 1% and corn edged up 0.2%.
Higher soybean yields would increase expected production and could weigh on soybean prices and broader grain sentiment. The upcoming USDA estimates may intensify selling if they exceed market expectations.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.