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Wheat futures fell across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis after President Trump said Russia and Ukraine were close to a deal. U.S. wheat export sales for 2026/27 were 28% below the year-earlier level, while a U.S. company signed $600 million in wheat and sorghum deals with Chinese buyers; France’s winter wheat planting was ahead of last year’s pace.
Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine agreement may ease concerns about Black Sea supply disruptions, while weak U.S. export sales point to softer demand and weigh on wheat prices. Chinese purchases provide some demand support, but the session’s broader price move was lower.
barchart.comAustin SchroederNov 6, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
