Wheat Futures Retreat on Hopes for Russia-Ukraine Deal

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 17, 2023What are the deals on Ukraine, Russia grain exports? | Reuters-1.4%
• Apr 17, 2023What are the deals on Ukraine, Russia grain exports? | Reuters+7.8%
• Feb 21, 2021Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea+0.7%
• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets+7.3%
• Feb 11, 2025Ukraine's Decreased Grain Production Creates Opportunities for Russia+2.0%

After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets-2.2%
• Oct 22, 2026Russia's promise to resume negotiations with Ukraine led to a speculative 2.5% decrease in wheat stock exchange quotes in one day.-3.4%
• Oct 11, 2022CBOT Wheat Futures Slide Amid Worries Over Black Sea Grain Trade-7.1%
• Oct 23, 2026Wheat prices fall to 14-week low on Black Sea hopes | Peepals-2.9%
• Oct 29, 2026CBOT wheat falls to 3½-month low on peace hopes | Adalytica-2.3%