Double exposure: How El Niño and the Iran crisis are eroding food security

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Sep 11, 2026How Do the Latest Black Sea Attacks Affect Global Food Security?-1.3%
• Jun 15, 2022The China-U.S. Food Security Puzzle - Li Zheng - CHINA US Focus-2.3%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+1.7%
• Feb 14, 2023Can Ukraine's Grain Corridor Ease the Global Food Crisis?-1.2%
• Apr 6, 2022The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service-2.3%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 11, 2026How Do the Latest Black Sea Attacks Affect Global Food Security?+2.5%
• Mar 31, 2022How war, weather, and Covid-19 are rekindling the food vs. fuel debate | The Counter+4.1%
• Jun 15, 2022The China-U.S. Food Security Puzzle - Li Zheng - CHINA US Focus-1.6%
• Mar 25, 2026Fertilizer prices surge amid Iran war, sparking food security warnings-1.0%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+2.4%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Jul 20, 2023Grain prices rise after Russian pullout of Black Sea deal sparks food crisis fears | Commodities | The Guardian+3.7%
• Mar 10, 2022Grains edge higher as hopes for Black Sea ceasefire fade – The Seam-2.2%
• Mar 4, 2022How strength in soybean prices is linked to the Black Sea conflict+1.2%
• Jul 15, 2026Wheat Skyrockets as Black Sea Exports Threatened, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans - AgWeb+1.0%
• Apr 1, 2026US corn planting seen down, soy acres up as Iran war inflates costs, analysts say-0.8%

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Jun 9, 2023The Ukraine Crisis and India’s Fertiliser Security - MP-IDSA+2.0%
• Sep 11, 2026How Do the Latest Black Sea Attacks Affect Global Food Security?+2.2%
• May 1, 2026It's not just oil: Why Iran war also threatens Asia's food security-11.0%
• Mar 25, 2026Fertilizer prices surge amid Iran war, sparking food security warnings+2.1%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+3.0%