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The November 3 U.S. Drought Monitor shows 69.1% of the country in abnormal dryness or drought, down 3.5% from the prior week, with 44.0% in D1 or worse. Drought intensified in southern Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky and Tennessee, with 19% of corn acres and 28% of soybean acres in D1-D4 drought.
Drought spreading into the lower Midwest during the harvest period adds some upside risk to corn and soybean supply expectations, though the national coverage has eased slightly and the near-term forecast is mostly dry rather than severely hot.
profarmer.comSpencer LangfordNov 5, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 13 past neutral weather events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +4.7%), and +6.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
