Crude Oil Prices Rebound as Ukraine Attacks Russian Refineries

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 11, 2026Oil Prices Jump 2% on Saudi Attacks as OPEC Sees Demand Rebound+7.5%
• Feb 24, 2022Oil tops $105/bbl after Russia attacks Ukraine | Reuters+20.2%
• Dec 19, 2025Oil prices climb as US blocks Venezuelan tankers, eyes on Russia-Ukraine talks | Reuters+0.8%
• Mar 18, 2024Oil prices inch higher amid attacks on Russian energy facilities | Reuters-0.9%
• Aug 25, 2026Grain exports stall as Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia-0.0%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2022Oil price rises again as buyers shun Russian crude+39.8%
• Sep 24, 2025Diesel Traders Bet on Price Spike as Russia Refineries Hit - TT-0.1%
• Jul 30, 2026Diesel Prices Climb Over Middle East Conflict and Refinery Attacks - WSJ-13.4%
• Mar 1, 2022Oil futures: Crude, fuel prices surge as Ukraine conflict pushes NYMEX WTI well past $100/b+33.1%
• Mar 4, 2022Crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel after Russia’s further invasion into Ukraine - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)-5.5%