Oil rose about 2% on Monday, with Brent at $106.80 and WTI at $93.78, after a weekend of Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 and OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth estimate to 400,000 bpd.
Renewed attacks on Gulf shipping threaten the recovery in exports, while weaker OPEC demand growth partly offsets the supply premium.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.