Inflation Expectations Fell With Oil. The Fed Officials Who Wanted a Hike Have Not Moved, and a December Hike Still Trades Near 80% on Kalshi

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2025Oil falls as higher OPEC+ output expectations weigh on sentiment+4.9%
• Jun 23, 2022Oil prices slump as investors fear Fed rate hikes will hurt demand | Reuters+4.3%
• Jun 11, 2020Oil drops more than 8% as fears over second wave of coronavirus cases hit the market-2.1%
• Dec 12, 2023U.S. crude oil falls more than 3% on inflation worries+3.3%
• Mar 14, 2023Oil falls to three-month low on inflation worries, U.S. bank shutdowns-8.9%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2025Oil falls as higher OPEC+ output expectations weigh on sentiment+6.2%
• May 2, 2019WEAK INFLATION ISN'T TRANSITORY -- COMMODITY PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE -- A RISING DOLLAR IS ONE REASON WHY -- STOCKS REACT BADLY TO LESS DOVISH FED -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST THE DOLLAR -- CRUDE OIL LEADS COMMODITIES LOWER-2.3%
• Jun 13, 2022ASX down nearly 4 per cent after Wall Street sell-off on inflation fears, S&P 500 falls into bear market - ABC News-9.2%
• Feb 16, 2023Currencies: Colombian Peso Ends the Week Devalued Amid Expectations of New Reforms - Stocks and Securities | Investments and Western Union Colombia-4.2%
• Jun 13, 2023Eggs are cheaper now, but inflation isn't where the Federal Reserve wants it to be+5.5%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Feb 22, 2023With inflation still the focus, Fed minutes show openness to higher rates endgame+0.6%
• Oct 14, 2026Dollar hits fresh 18-month high as hot inflation boosts Fed hike expectation-0.3%
• Mar 18, 2026Dollar, Iran, and Fed Expectations Weigh on Metals - ADM Investor Services+0.2%
• May 31, 2021Dollar near 2-month high vs yen, U.S. inflation beats expectations | Financial Post-0.2%
• Oct 8, 2026ECB officials agree: Eurozone is still saved from second-round inflation effects — Octa+0.3%