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Brent posted its sharpest weekly decline since April 2020 after US midterm results raised expectations of a negotiated end to the Iran conflict. Brent fell from above $117 to below $95 and is finding support near its 200-day moving average at $93.4.
Peace expectations have removed a large geopolitical risk premium from crude, but refined product flows remain at about 37% of normal and distillate margins stay elevated, so diesel tightness may outlast the crude decline.
home.saxoOle HansenNov 5, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
