Refined fuel prices retreat in Asia, but still show supply stress

After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2022Oil prices bubble then implode | Reuters+32.3%
• Nov 18, 2022European refiners oversupplied as oil shortage fears subside-9.9%
• Mar 22, 2026Oil prices plunge 11% on US-Iran talks to resolve hostilities in the Middle East | Reuters-2.4%
• Apr 13, 2026Oil prices fall as supply concerns ease on hopes for US-Iran talks - CNA-8.7%
• Nov 26, 2025Fuel Prices Dip as Ukraine Peace Talks Continue | Energy Intelligence-2.3%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2026US oil prices fall as investors gauge risks to Mideast supply By Reuters-2.3%
• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices drop 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk | Reuters-12.2%
• Mar 17, 2022Oil prices bubble then implode | Reuters+21.1%
• Mar 9, 2020Oil plunges in Asia as producers start price war-23.0%
• May 5, 2026Oil prices fall 4% as fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds, two ships pass through Strait of Hormuz | Reuters-7.6%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2026US oil prices fall as investors gauge risks to Mideast supply By Reuters-5.4%
• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices drop 6% as Israel-Iran ceasefire reduces Middle East supply risk | Reuters-11.9%
• Mar 17, 2022Oil prices bubble then implode | Reuters+23.0%
• Mar 9, 2020Oil plunges in Asia as producers start price war-27.3%
• May 6, 2026Oil and gas prices fall sharply, driven by hopes of strait of Hormuz reopening – as it happened | Business | The Guardian-2.3%