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European refiners have found themselves oversupplied as oil shortage fears ease. The Brent front-month spread narrowed sharply this week, reflecting better physical supply as concerns over the EU embargo on Russian crude subside.
Easing European supply concerns weigh on crude and diesel prices, lowering energy costs for feed logistics. Reduced fear of supply disruption also removes a support for energy-linked agricultural inputs.
reuters.comJulia Payne, Ahmad GhaddarNov 18, 2022After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
