
Iran conditions reopening the Strait of Hormuz on US acceptance of seven demands, keeping energy markets volatile. The IEA reports Egypt's energy-import bill more than doubled since regional hostilities began, with its gas import bill nearly tripling as it bought spot LNG.
Renewed Houthi threats also risk Suez Canal recovery.
Hormuz disruption keeps crude and LNG prices elevated, raising freight and energy costs for feed importers. Egypt's fuel-import strain could also cut its capacity to buy grain and feed ingredients.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.