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European gas reserves are falling quickly after cold weather and a wind drought increased demand. Supply cuts from Russia loom, and prices are up about 45% this year.
Tensions in Ukraine are rising ahead of the change of US administration.
Tight European gas supply and the risk of Russian supply cuts support higher gas prices, which raise nitrogen fertilizer and energy costs. Geopolitical risk adds to the upside pressure.
fortune.comAnna Shiryaevskaya, Priscila Azevedo Rocha, BloombergNov 23, 2024After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
