
Oil prices fell more than 8% to their lowest in over two months after Trump's Republican Party lost control of Congress in the midterm elections. Brent settled at $94.62 and WTI at $88.12, as investors bet a Democratic Congress could hasten an end to the US-Israeli war with Iran.
Lower crude lowers diesel and energy costs for feed production, freight and fertiliser, and eases pressure on biofuel-linked demand for oilseeds. The price effect hinges on whether a negotiated exit actually materialises.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.