China's National Bureau-style figures for January–September show total pork, beef, mutton and poultry output of 76.27 million tonnes, up 4.3% year on year, with pork up 3.2% and poultry up 9.3%. The breeding sow herd fell to 36.02 million head at end-September, 3.59 million below end-2025 and back within the government's target range.
Beef cattle farms have been profitable for 18 months and raw milk prices rose month on month for three straight months.
Shrinking sow numbers point to tighter pork supply ahead, which supports hog prices and reduces near-term soymeal demand from the hog sector. Rising raw milk prices and cattle margins signal firmer dairy and beef fundamentals.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.