
USDA's April 1, 2019 Cattle on Feed report showed placements up 5 percent against analyst expectations of 4 percent, with other figures in line with forecasts. Analysts said spring cash cattle highs may be in, and noted that African swine fever could reshape trade flows and beef-pork-chicken substitution.
Higher placements add to future feeding supplies, and analysts expect cash cattle to top out ahead of larger summer supplies, pointing to softer cattle prices later in the year.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.