August feeder futures are about $25 per cwt below the April 18 contract high, following seasonal declines, a bearish April Cattle on Feed report and weaker exports. The USDA's June report cut 2019 corn production by 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion, the lowest since 2015/16.
A sharply smaller US corn crop lifts feed costs and is the main near-term threat to cattle margins. Feed buyers should expect firm corn and sorghum prices.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.