Oklahoma State economist Derrell Peel reviews the June 1 Cattle on Feed report, which showed 11.553 million head in feedlots, the largest June 1 inventory since the series began in 1996. Feedlot inventories have risen year-over-year for 18 straight months, and placements were slightly higher than last year.
Record feedlot inventories signal ample beef supply and pressure on cattle prices. Feed buyers should expect continued weakness in fed cattle values as larger inventories move to market.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.