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DTN's livestock analyst explains how to interpret placements in the November Cattle on Feed report, which showed placements up about 10% from the prior year. The piece argues that placement data must be compared to a baseline before judging whether the report is bullish or bearish.
Placement surges pull feeder supply forward and add to future fed supply, which is a bearish factor for feeder and fed cattle prices.
dtnpf.comShayLe StewartDec 2, 2019After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
