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USDA's October 1 Cattle on Feed report, released Friday October 20, showed 11.58 million head on feed, higher than expected. December live cattle fell $6.27 to a four-month low of $178.35 on Monday as speculators exited positions.
Higher-than-expected feedlot numbers signal larger near-term beef supply, pressuring live cattle and feeder cattle prices and reducing demand for cattle-feed inputs in the short run.
dtnpf.comElaine SheinOct 24, 2023After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The bearish USDA Cattle on Feed report of Oct 20 showed higher-than-expected feedlot inventories, triggering speculative liquidation and a sharp drop in live cattle futures.
The On Feed report showed higher-than-expected cattle on feed, and December live cattle fell to a four-month low on Oct 23 as speculators liquidated, which is the supply and sentiment driver of the move.
