USDA cut its 2022 global milk production forecast by 3.38 million tonnes to 442.7 million tonnes, the first annual decline since 2004. The cut reflects heat-related losses in the EU, where the forecast was lowered by 4.45 million tonnes to a five-year low of 142.3 million tonnes.
Argentina's production was also trimmed as feed costs squeezed margins.
A first global milk output decline in 18 years, led by the EU, tightens dairy supplies and supports higher prices for dairy products and dairy-based feed inputs.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.