
USDA's August WASDE lowered its 2023 milk production forecast to 227.9 billion lbs and cut cow inventories for 2023 and 2024. It also raised the 2023 all-milk price projection by 40 cents to $19.95 per cwt, with Class III and Class IV forecasts rising sharply.
Lower projected milk output and cow numbers tighten dairy supply, supporting higher milk and product prices and firmer demand for dairy-based feed ingredients.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.