The USDA's June WASDE cut its 2017 and 2018 US milk production forecasts by 200 and 300 million pounds from the previous month, as slower per-cow gains outweigh more cows. The agency also raised cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk price forecasts on strong demand and reduced output.
Tighter US milk supply and higher dairy product price forecasts point to firmer Class III milk prices. This supports dairy feed demand, which buyers should factor into pricing.
After 237 past bullish report events, MILK moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.