USDA's April 11 WASDE raised its 2023 US milk production estimate by 200 million pounds on a larger cow inventory. Cheese and butter price forecasts were raised, while nonfat dry milk was lowered, and 2023 production is projected to rise about 0.97% from 2022.
Higher cheese and butter price forecasts support milk values, but a growing cow herd points to larger future milk supplies. Net effect on dairy prices is modestly bullish in the near term.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.