Lee Mielke reports that USDA cut its 2022 and 2023 milk production estimates in the June WASDE. Price forecasts for cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk were raised, while the whey forecast was lowered.
Cheese is now projected at $2.1950/lb for 2022 and butter at $2.7650/lb.
Lower milk output combined with higher product price forecasts points to firmer dairy prices and stronger Class III and IV milk values. Dairy demand for feed ingredients should remain steady.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.