
USDA's April WASDE trimmed its 2019 US milk production forecast by about 200 million pounds to 219.5 billion pounds, citing slower milk-per-cow growth despite more cows. It raised the cheese price forecast while cutting butter, nonfat dry milk and whey, leaving the 2019 Class III midpoint at $15.35/cwt and Class IV at $16.05/cwt.
A smaller milk supply and firmer cheese prices support Class III and all-milk prices, while weaker butter and powder forecasts cap Class IV. Buyers of dairy-based feed should expect modest firmness in milk prices.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.