Class III milk futures have traded sideways after peaking at $25.60 in April, and USDA data showed April US milk output down 1% year over year. The drop reflects 97,000 fewer cows rather than lower yields per cow.
US dairy exports also rose, with butter shipments at their highest monthly tonnage since 2014.
Fewer cows and firm export demand tighten the milk supply, supporting dairy prices and the value of dairy byproducts used in feed.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.